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Inclusion rate and win probability: a closer look at Overt Operative

When you poke at the knobs of deck-building strategy, you quickly arrive at a truth every MTG player loves to argue about: the real power of a card isn’t just what it does in isolation, but how often you see it—and what it lets you do when you do. Overt Operative, a black mana creature from the Unstable set, is a tasty case study. With a mana cost of {3}{B} and a clean 2/3 body, this uncommon Human Ninja Rigger arrives with two core strengths: menace to threaten surgical pressure and a built-in engine that activates every time it connects in combat. The flavor? “Saw her coming. Didn't matter.” The mechanics? When it deals combat damage to a player, it assembles a Contraption by flipping the top card of your Contraption deck onto a sprocket. That’s a mouthful, but it’s the kind of mouthful that steadily compounds value the more you lean into the Contraption subgame 🧙‍♂️🔥.

Let’s unpack how this translates to win probability across a game. In Unstable’s quirky world, Contraptions aren’t just cosmetic artifacts; they’re mini engines that reveal their tops as you assemble them and push your board presence forward with every attack. Overt Operative’s menace ability makes it a stubborn blocker and a reliable pressure creature in black-centric shells. When it connects, the contraption-a-turned-sprocket ritual begins—each assembled contraption creates a little, tangible advantage that can snowball into a win. The density of that advantage, of course, is tightly tied to how often you see the card in your maindeck. It’s here that the concept of inclusion rate—the percentage of your deck that you devote to this single card—meets win probability in a practical way 🧩💎.

What inclusion rate means for a 60-card deck

In a typical constructed 60-card MTG deck, you’re choosing how many copies of Overt Operative to run. Four copies maximizes the raw odds of drawing it by a given turn; two copies smooths out mulligans and deck thinning while keeping the risk of “dead draws” lower. A helpful rough guide looks like this: the chance to draw at least one copy by your nth draw is roughly 1 minus the chance of drawing zero copies in all those draws, i.e. 1 - ((D - c)/D)^n, where D is the deck size (60) and c is the number of copies you run. So, with c = 2 and D = 60, by your first seven draws (roughly the point you’re setting up to swing in midrange), you’re flirting with the high single-digit to low double-digit percentages of seeing Operative. With c = 4, those odds jump meaningfully. It’s not a slam dunk, but it’s a measurable tilt in your favor 🧙‍♂️🎲.

But this isn’t just about probabilities on a chart. Overt Operative’s true leverage comes from the way its trigger interacts with your unfolding game plan. Each time it deals combat damage, you get to assemble a Contraption—and those contraptions come with an array of little upgrades that can swing the parity of a stalled board. In Unstable’s humor-forward world, that’s exactly the kind of momentum you want to ride, especially when your opponent’s defenses are trying to stabilize. The card’s flavor and mechanics are a wink to the idea that, in a game built on surprises, sometimes the best engine is simply assembling something unexpected the moment you land a hit ⚔️.

Deck-building notes and practical tips

• Color and cost considerations: With a mana cost of {3}{B}, Operative slides into midrange black builds that crave predictable card advantage and resilient threats. Its 2/3 body with menace helps you push through damage while your contraptions take over the late game.
• Contraption synergy: The Unstable Contraption mechanic is central to the card’s floor. If your deck leans into assembling contraptions efficiently, Overt Operative becomes a reliable trigger that accelerates your overall value generation.
• Inclusion rate balance: In a world where you’re balancing removal, disruption, and threat density, 2 to 3 copies can be a sweet spot for a dedicated Contraption shell. If you’re leaning into a super-aggro plan, you might back off to 1 copy to avoid “dead-draws” and keep your curve clean.
• Tempo vs. payoff: The tempo gained from menace and the inevitability of contraptions creates a layered win condition. You’re not just racing to deal damage; you’re racing to assemble upgrades that compound over time ✨.

“Saw her coming. Didn't matter.” — flavor text on a card that teaches us to play the long game with a smile.

Artistically, the Unstable era gave us cards that feel like they were drawn from a mad scientist’s notebook, and Overt Operative fits that vibe perfectly. The silver-border aesthetic (and the Agent’s of Sneak watermark) signals that even a serious black tempo play can be a little chaotic and a lot fun. If you’re chasing a win-rate uptick, this is the kind of card that rewards you for knowing when to push the gas and when to let the contraptions do the talking 🔥💎.

Beyond the table, the card’s collectability—foil versions, beautiful full-arts in some prints, and the general charm of Unstable—adds a social layer to why players chase these little engines. It’s not just about numbers; it’s about the stories you collect as you assemble each contraption and watch the game tilt in your favor bit by bit 🧭🎨.

Where this fits in your broader MTG journey

For new players, Overt Operative is a friendly entry into the mechanic-laden world of Contraptions, providing a teachable moment about how a single combat damage trigger can cascade into meaningful advantage. For seasoned players, it’s a nostalgia trip that blends clever design with a dash of chaos—the kind of card that invites creative deckbuilding and a few well-timed swings to surprise an opponent. And for the collector in you, the Unstable printing, with its foil and nonfoil finishes, offers a tactile thrill that complements the quirky flavor text and the card’s iconic silhouette 🧙‍♂️🎲.

As you plan your next tournament or casual Friday night duel, consider how inclusion rate interacts with your risk tolerance and deck architecture. Overt Operative doesn’t win games alone, but it advertises a pathway to victory by stacking small, repeatable advantages that compound as the game unfolds. When you see that spark on the table—the moment a Contraption rides the edge of your sprocket—you’ll know why some cards are worth the extra copies on your sideboard: they quietly raise your odds, one attack at a time ⚔️.

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