How Inclusion Rate of Smash to Smithereens Impacts Win Probability

Smash to Smithereens card art by Pete Venters from Magic Origins

Image courtesy of Scryfall.com

Inclusion Rate and Win Probability: Smash to Smithereens in Action

Red magic has always thrived on speed, aggression, and a little chaos, but Smash to Smithereens adds a precise, surgical tool to the red toolkit: destroy an artifact, and punish the artifact controller with a dose of burn. In the context of win probability, inclusion rate—the number of copies you run in a deck—acts like a lever. Put Smash to Smithereens into the lineup too often, and you tilt the curve toward artifact-heavy matchups; lean away, and you risk staring down a board full of opposing treasures with no way to knock them down. 🧙‍♂️🔥 The key is matching your inclusion to the metagame, your deck’s plan, and the inevitable inevitability of artifact threats in a world where tools evolve faster than a goblin can trade a trap for a bolt of glory. ⚔️

Smash to Smithereens is a compact, efficient answer: it costs only two mana (one generic and one red), fits neatly into aggressive red shells, and answers a wide swath of targets—anything from a lone Clue token to a towering 3/3 with a quiet aura of inevitability. The charm of its oracle text—destroy target artifact and ping the artifact’s controller for 3 damage—lets you swing tempo while also applying pressure on the opponent’s life total. In terms of win probability, that dual action shifts the odds when you expect your opponent to lean on artifacts for acceleration, protection, or card advantage. The more copies you run, the likelier you are to draw it in time to swing a board state or shut down a critical play. But it’s not a one-card miracle; it’s a piece of a broader artifact-hate strategy. 🧲💎

What the card brings to the table

Efficient removal for artifacts, often a major hazard in decks that rely onequipment, artifact creatures, or mana rocks.
Direct pressure on the opponent via the extra 3 damage, turning a simple removal spell into tempo that compounds damage over multiple turns.
Color alignment with red’s aggressive, fast, and sometimes reckless game plan, making it a natural fit in many red-leaning shells.
Accessibility as a common rarity card; foil versions exist, which can be appealing for collectors and a secondary market edge for players who like shiny accelerants in their cube or casual decks.

“Sometimes the fastest way to win is to pull the gears out from under your opponent’s engine.” 🧙‍♂️

Practical deck-building tips for inclusion rate

Meta-driven sideboard value: in tournaments or local metas with heavy artifact-based strategies (Treasure, Fusion, equipment-focused decks), 2–3 copies in the sideboard are a strong hedge. This keeps your maindeck lean while preserving game plan flexibility.
Main-deck stability: in a red tempo or burn shell facing frequent artifact threats, a 2-of main deck can be a reliable anchor—especially if you pair it with other cheap removal or a strategic plan to ride early pressure.
Deck balance: consider how Smash to Smithereens interacts with your other removal spells. If you’re packing multiple two-mana answers, you might prefer a lower inclusion rate to maintain curve integrity and avoid stalling on turn two or three.
Sideboard tailoring: in best-of-three formats, it’s common to swap in Smash to Smithereens for matchups where artifacts loom large, then swap it out when those threats aren’t present.
Synergy with splash color or tribal themes: in decks that juggle red with a splash color or a tribal motif that relies on fast starts, Smash to Smithereens stays valuable as a predictable answer without overfilling the hand with less flexible cards.

From a probabilistic standpoint, the more copies you draw per game, the higher your chances of hitting a critical artifact removal at the exact moment you need it. But there’s a balancing act: too many copies can crowd your hand and dilute your plan if your primary aim is raw aggression or ramp. The art of inclusion rate is learning to read the battlefield and forecast the arch of the match, just like predicting a dune-wide wind on a desert trek. 🎲

Flavor, art, and the lore of the card

Smash to Smithereens comes from Magic Origins, a set that revisited the spark of magic in the game’s narrative and aesthetics. The card depicts Tarvik Relicsmasher, a flavor-rich figure whose dream-turned-reality arc threads through the flavor text. The art by Pete Venters captures the pick-and-shovel pragmatism of smashing through relics, a perfect metaphor for a red mage’s practical, sometimes blunt approach to problems. The card’s lore adds a grounded counterpoint to the cosmic scale of many spells: even in a cosmos of dragons and planeswalkers, a well-aimed smash can change the course of a game. 🧙‍♂️🎨

In the broader design space, Smash to Smithereens embodies the elegance of a low-cost answer that scales with the game’s tempo. It’s not a flashy bomb; it’s a reliable tool that rewards players who count artifacts, anticipate opponent moves, and timing their plays with the patience of a master smith. The common rarity emphasizes accessibility, ensuring new players can experiment with artifact hate without needing to chase rare chase cards. That accessibility also supports a healthy, playable deck-building culture around red’s more pragmatic side. 🔥⚔️

Where it fits in today’s landscape

While Smash to Smithereens was printed in Magic Origins and remains a staple for artifact-focused matchups, its power stays contextual. In older formats, it remains a cost-effective tool that can swing outcomes against midrange and control shells that lean on artifacts for mana or card advantage. In cube environments, it serves as a consistent, aggressive answer to relics and needs a well-timed cast to maximize its impact. The balance between tempo and removal is the heartbeat of this card’s practical inclusion rate; when you tune that pulse correctly, your win probability climbs in tandem with your confidence on turn two. 💎🎲

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As you tune your inclusion rate for Smash to Smithereens, may your draws be timely, your artifacts fleeting, and your victories elegant. Here’s to the quiet satisfaction of seeing a plan come together—with a little red spark and a lot of calculated heart. 🧙‍♂️💥